The Jubilee Hills Assembly by-election has turned into a high-stakes, nail-biting affair, defying the conventional wisdom of pre-poll surveys. Despite seven out of nine leading poll survey agencies predicting a ‘Congress Win’, but Bharata Rastra Samithi (BRS) Working President K.T. Rama Rao (KTR) has maintained an astonishing level of confidence in his party’s candidate, Maganti Sunita. Interestingly, the seven poll agencies, which predicted Congress win, have given vote share margins of Congress-BRS ranging from 2 to 7.4 percent.
The Survey Divide
KTR’s unwavering conviction flies in the face of most data, yet a single outlier provides a sliver of support: Mission Chanakya and National Family Opinion PVT Limited were the two voices projecting a BRS victory. Mission Chanakya predicted of 41.60% vote share to BRS against the Congress’s 39.43% and National Family Opinion PVT Limited says that BRS will get 44.49 percent vote share against 39.24 vote share to Congress. The The National Family opinion (NFO), which claimed that the voter survey has done till 6.30 pm, has shown edge to BRS in Yusufguda division, a native area of Congress candidate Naveen Yadav. It is a key point in the National Family Opinion survey. Crucially, even the Congress is in lead in the poll surveys of Chanakya Strategies, Public Pulse, Naganna Survey, Smart Poll, Trishul, HMR, and Race KTR showed a remarkable consistency for the BRS win, whick vote share above 40% in the eight surveys. This strong baseline figure is arguably the source of BRS’s optimism, suggesting a highly competitive race rather than a rout.
Ground Game Intensity and the ‘Vinay Bhaskar Incident’
The BRS machine’s relentless effort on the ground has been evident. The party deployed its full roster—MLAs, MPs, former legislators, and district presidents who were observed actively campaigning in every nook and cranny, demonstrating a dedication on par with the ruling Congress party. This massive mobilisation points to a serious strategic commitment to the seat, reinforcing the idea that KTR’s confidence isn’t just bravado—it’s backed by an aggressive, high-resource campaign.
The incident involving former MLA Vinay Bhaskar being sent away by police from a polling booth on the election-day adds a layer of intrigue. On the surface, this type of enforcement action suggests a transgression of election rules. However, in the highly charged atmosphere of a close by-election, the presence of a senior leader near a booth is often interpreted as a strategic move to influence the process or simply as an assertion of political presence. Could this “action” be a sign of BRS’s hyper-vigilance, an attempt to personally oversee the critical last-mile process perhaps even hinting at the ‘precise figures’ KTR allegedly possesses? It certainly feeds the narrative that the BRS was fighting tooth and nail for every vote.
The Allegations of Irregularities
The heightened tension has inevitably led to claims of malfeasance. BRS leaders are vocally accusing the ruling Congress of engaging in ‘false vote casting.’ Yet, sources suggest that the BRS has also employed similar “tricks” in various polling booths, with Vinay Bhaskar’s contentious presence near a booth perhaps serving as circumstantial evidence of an aggressive, if ethically questionable, poll management strategy. In short, the Jubilee Hills by-election was a tough fight where the BRS refused to concede despite the poll forecasts. KTR‘s public confidence may be routine political theatre, but the consistent 40%+ BRS vote share in all surveys, combined with their extraordinary ground effort, suggests a deeper conviction rooted in the actual contestability of the seat. The result will determine whether KTR was merely whistling in the dark or had access to a more accurate internal compass. Apart from it, it is learnt that KTR conducted his own survey with his party men and it is also given an edge to BRS. Is it the KTR’s confidence on winning? The facts will be come out only on November 14.
Editor, Prime Post
Ravindra Seshu Amaravadi, is a senior journalist with 38 years of experience in Telugu, English news papers and electronic media. He worked in Udayam as a sub-editor and reporter. Later, he was associated with Andhra Pradesh Times, Gemini news, Deccan Chronicle, HMTV and The Hans India. Earlier, he was involved in the research work of All India Kisan Sabha on suicides of cotton farmers. In Deccan Chronicle, he exposed the problems of subabul and chilli farmers and malpractices that took place in various government departments.
Amaravadi Ravindra Seshu garu – namaste, Good Morning sir – I too also worked as Teleprinter Operator in UDAYAM Telugu News Daily at Warangal. After transferred from Warangal, I have discharged the duties as P.T.S. Keyboard Operator at Hyderabad Office when Brahmananda Reddy garu is Incharge. Mr. Vishnuvardhan Reddy, Photo type setting section and Mr. Vara Prasad also known to me.
Coming to reply in regard to exit poll of Jubilee Hills Assembly – Exit polls are not always turning to exact results. Further being a opposition party leader Mr. K.T. Rama Rao’s confident may be fruitful.
Sarma garu, very happy sir. I know Vishnuvardan reffy garu and vara prasad garu very well. Your analysis is on the jubilee hills article is good sir.
BRS has more chances to win in Jubilee Hills By Election. Because people are not happy as Revanth Reddy not implemented his manifesto as committed to the public. And not serious in implementing them. It looks people in Telangana decided to cast their vote in favour of BRS.
Thank you for your comment sir.