- Is AIMIM not contesting a fair chance for Congress?
- BRS is ahead of other parties with its vigorous campaign
- The expected poll percentage may be low compared to the last three elections
The Jubilee Hills by-election and its final outcome have turned out to be interesting due to various reasons. One could potentially conclude the poll verdict by reviewing the past three assembly elections. Maganti Gopinath won the Jubilee Hills seat in the last three assembly polls: 2014, 2018, and 2023. He won as a TDP candidate in 2014 and as a BRS candidate in the 2018 and 2023 elections. Muslims turned out in favor of BRS in the last two elections due to MIM support.
There are 1.21 lakh Muslim voters in Jubilee Hills, representing a 33.4 percent voting share, which will be decisive in determining the winning candidate. The total number of votes in the constituency is 3.55 lakh, but the voter turnout has been historically low: 50.5 percent in 2014, 46.4 percent in 2018, and 45.2 percent in 2023. One can conclude that most of the elite, businessmen, and educated residents were not eagerly participating in the past three assembly elections. Assessing the poll percentage in Jubilee Hills in the present by-election is not a tough task. It is expected to be lower than the three previous polls.
Interestingly, AIMIM has already announced its support for Congress. There are 20 slums, including Borabanda, Karmikanagar, Rahmathnagar, Krishnanagar, Venkatgiri, PJR Nagar, Sivajinagar, and Kamalanagar. In Jubilee Hills, about 60 percent of the voters are residing in these colonies, while the rest of the areas have been occupied by business houses, shopping malls, and corporate offices, where the residential population is very low. After noting the above details, any poll pundit might predict a Congress victory in the Jubilee Hills election. Although there are cases against Naveen Yadav, the Congress candidate, the colony voters may not take them seriously. It is apt to recall that Gopinath was elected as BRS MLA in 2018 and 2023 with MIM support.
However, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is ahead of all political parties in campaigning in the constituency. Its former ministers, MPs, and MLAs have been entrusted with the poll campaign in each colony and corporate division. The BRS legislators are visiting each and every house, appealing to the voters to cast their vote for their party. For example, V Ravi, a Rajya Sabha MP, is touring like a sincere party activist and pleading for votes. Maganti Sunita, Gopinath’s wife, is appealing to the voters to cast their vote for BRS. The election result will be surprising if two things happen: ONE: The BRS campaign successfully reaches the hearts of the people of the slum areas. TWO: The elite and educated turn out to the polling booths in an unprecedented way.
Editor, Prime Post
Ravindra Seshu Amaravadi, is a senior journalist with 38 years of experience in Telugu, English news papers and electronic media. He worked in Udayam as a sub-editor and reporter. Later, he was associated with Andhra Pradesh Times, Gemini news, Deccan Chronicle, HMTV and The Hans India. Earlier, he was involved in the research work of All India Kisan Sabha on suicides of cotton farmers. In Deccan Chronicle, he exposed the problems of subabul and chilli farmers and malpractices that took place in various government departments.
