- From 1979 to the Present Uprising
- A Historical Echo of Revolt
The Grand Bazaar in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, has a grand history. It is not only a commercial hub but a very sensitive political heartbeat. Forty seven years ago, it was at this bazaar that the revolt against Shah (King) of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s regime was launched. The people of Iran were utterly unhappy with the foreign domination through the king, lack of freedom and the lack of fair distribution of the wealth. The revolution had succeeded in getting rid of the Shah. His regime was replaced by the Islamic Republic. Now the latest revolt was started with the same grand old Grand Bazaar.
Four Decades of Unfulfilled Promises
The aftermath of the revolution four decades ago offered no relief to the people of Iran. The new regime had imposed Islamic rule. It alienated from the US and got closer to Russia and China. The people did not get the freedom they were dying for. The economic situation was no better with the ever rising unemployment. There have been protests in the last four decades on a number of occasions. The protests were suppressed with brutal force. Every time they were suppressed the people came into the streets with new vigour and more force. This time the people are in no position to keep quiet whatever the degree of suppression by the Islamic Republic headed by Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Economic Anguish and Global Repercussions
People are angry with the economic problems with deteriorating living standards, ever rising inflation and unemployment. They are also anguished with the use of force by the regime and its threats to hang the protesters. Even the social media handlers who were sympathetic with the regime till recently appear to have thrown their lot with the protesters.
There is no way to know how many protestors were really killed in the streets. The US sources put the figure at more than 2,500. The protestors expect the US to intervene in a decisive manner since they are not equipped to counter the force applied by the regime. Russia which is engaged in a prolonged war against Ukraine is not in a position to help Khamenei’s regime. China also might keep away from the unrest for its own reasons. US President Donald Trump has been issuing statements encouraging the people alienated from the regime. Trump has been talking of war against Iran. Shah’s son, Reza pehalvi, crown prince of Iran, has been actively supporting the protesters.
Military Posturing and the Impact on Regional Stability
The US intervention has to be decisive. There will be no point if it indulged in bombing Iran from a distance and blow its nuclear facility. The targets could include Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards’ infrastructure. A diplomat quipped, “It is difficult to do regime change from 30,000 feet above.” It amounts to saying that ‘strikes from the air or ships won’t be enough.’ It has to be true occupation of Iran overthrowing the present regime. The first option for the US is diplomacy. Iranian diplomats are known for their skills at dealing with the diplomats of other countries whatever the intensity of the crisis at hand. It was evident when Barack Obama was the President and he tried to carry out the sanctions he had imposed on Iran and the latter wriggled out by way of negotiating a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on nuclear deal.
Escalation in the Persian Gulf
If the US is compelled to put its foot down on Iran, it will not be as easy as dethroning the leader of Venezuela. Earlier this month, President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela was captured by US forces with minimum damage. Can the US pull off a Maduro-like capture in Iran? Given the strong control of the Revolutionary Guards and strong resolve of the Khamenei regime, it would be extremely difficult to repeat Venezuela in Iran. If the US has to establish its control and command over Iran it has to go for full-scale invasion which would be prohibitively expensive. It could backfire the way the US adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan did. Trump is caught between devil and deep sea. The core Trump supporters of MAGA project would not like Iran invasion at all.
Military Posturing and the Impact on Regional Stability
But the ground realities are forcing Trump’s hands. He has ordered the redeployment of a carrier strike group from South China Sea to the US Central Command area of responsibility which includes the West Asia region. The carrier strike group, The USS Abraham Lincoln, centred on an aircraft carrier and supported by multiple warships, including at least one attack submarine, will take nearly one week to reach any point near Iran. It is obvious that the US has been supporting the protesters in Iran. The US move of the redeployment is significant in view of the rising popular anger against the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran, on the other hand, has been inviting hardcore Iraqi militia to crack down on protesters amid US threats. Iran has issued a chilling threat against US President Donald Trump on Wednesday through the state-run TV. The TV has been replaying the clips of Trump’s 2024 assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. It says the bullet will not miss the target this time. Turkey has said it opposes military intervention in Iran by the US. Attempts to destabilize West Asia would be opposed, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday.
The Crisis for India and Its Citizens
India would be impacted again in its neighbourhood in the same way as it was affected during Afghanistan war. It will be very difficult to maintain diplomatic silence if Iran is attacked by the US. Since Trump in his first term imposed economic sanctions on Iran, India has no considerable business deals with Iran. To that extent it is safe. But to keep the Arab countries with India, Iran cannot be left to its fate in case of the US invasion. India will have to act diplomatically in its own interest. In the meanwhile, the first flight to bring back Indians stranded in Iran will land in New Delhi tomorrow. India issued an urgent advisory for its citizens on Thursday to come away from Iran as fast as possible. Students of Golestan University and a few students from Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences and Tehran University of Medical Sciences will comprise the first batch of Indians to leave Tehran on Friday morning.
Prominent Journalist
Dr. K. Ramachandra Murthy is a versatile journalist with a distinguished career. Dr. Murthy began his extensive career with Andhra Prabha of The Indian Express group in Bengaluru. He was editor of Udayam, Vaartha and Andhra Jyothy. Dr. Murthy founded and edited HMTV news channel and The Hans India, an English newspaper. He was also editorial director of the Telugu newspaper, Saakshi. He was awarded Ph. D for his research work in rural reporting. Dr. Murthy’s five decades in journalism showcases his influential roles across both print and electronic media. He wrote the political biography of NTR published by Harper Collins.
